TLDR
- ETH exchange supply has dropped to 14.8 million, the lowest level since 2016
- About 2.7 million ETH ($11.3 billion) left exchanges in the past month alone
- Institutional buyers and treasury firms now hold roughly 10% of all ETH in existence
- Long-term holder selling is countering bullish accumulation, creating sideways price action
- ETH currently trades around $4,100-4,200, caught in a consolidation pattern between $4,000-$4,500
The supply of Ethereum on centralized exchanges has hit its lowest point in nine years, dropping to 14.8 million ETH as institutional buyers continue accumulating the second-largest cryptocurrency. Despite this typically bullish indicator, ETH’s price remains stuck in a sideways pattern around the $4,100 mark due to conflicting market forces.
Exchange balances of Ethereum have been declining steadily since mid-2020, with available supply shrinking by approximately 50% over the past two years. This trend has accelerated significantly since mid-July, with balances dropping 20% as digital asset treasuries stepped up their accumulation efforts.
Data from Glassnode confirms the nine-year low of 14.8 million ETH on exchanges. CryptoQuant reports a similar trend with its Ethereum exchange supply ratio at 0.14 — the lowest level since July 2016.
Falling exchange supplies typically indicate that the asset is being moved to cold storage, staking, or into DeFi protocols for yield generation rather than being held for immediate sale.
The 30-day moving average of total Ethereum exchange net flows recently reached its highest level since late 2022, showing that the pace of withdrawals is increasing. Glassnode’s exchange net position change registered negative 2.18 million ETH on Wednesday, a level seen only five times in the past decade.
Institutional Buying Accelerates
Corporate Ethereum treasuries have played a major role in this supply shift. Tom Lee-chaired BitMine alone now holds over 2% of the total ETH supply, with the company aggressively accumulating since June.
Since April, approximately 68 entities have purchased 5.26 million ETH worth around $21.7 billion, representing 4.3% of the entire supply, according to data from StrategicEthReserve. Most of these buyers are staking the asset for additional yield rather than keeping it on exchanges.
U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have also seen increased inflows during the same period. These now total 6.75 million ETH worth almost $28 billion, accounting for 5.6% of the total supply.
Combined, these institutional entities now control roughly 10% of all ETH in existence, with the pace of accumulation picking up in recent months.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas described the phenomenon as Ethereum getting “the Wall Street glow-up,” noting that “treasuries are stacking ETH, exchange supply hits 9-year low, and Tom Lee’s calling $10K to $15K by year-end.”
Price Remains Range-Bound
Despite these bullish indicators, Ethereum’s price has fallen back more than 11% over the past week, dropping below $4,100 on Thursday. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $4,176, just above the critical $4,074 support zone.
The apparent contradiction between reduced exchange supply and stagnant price action can be explained by Ethereum’s Liveliness metric, which has been trending upward. This metric measures the behavior of long-term holders, and an increase typically suggests these investors are selling rather than holding.
This selling pressure from long-term holders is effectively counterbalancing the bullish momentum from fresh institutional inflows, resulting in a standoff that has kept ETH locked in a sideways consolidation pattern.
The immediate resistance for ETH sits at $4,222, which it must break to attempt further recovery. Given the conflicting market signals, ETH is likely to remain consolidated within a range between $4,000 and $4,500 until one side gains dominance.
If selling from long-term holders intensifies, Ethereum could face further downside pressure. A breakdown below the $4,027 support level would leave ETH vulnerable to a decline toward $3,910.
For now, Ethereum continues to be pulled by two opposing forces: heavy accumulation from retail and institutional players versus continued selling pressure from long-term holders.
