- Analysts see downside to $3,560 or upside targets up to $20,000 after Ethereum crashed 15% on Monday.
- Institutional inflows and Fed cuts, however, fuel a long-term bullish outlook.
- $4,000 remains the key level as bulls and bears fight for control.
Ethereum price plunged into a violent sell-off on Monday, wiping out many leveraged long positions and rattling traders.
Ethereum’s price has, however, rebounded slightly, with CoinGecko showing ETH trading around $4,197, with a 24-hour range near $4,125–$4,220 at press time.
Crash and carnage: $1.5B liquidations
On Monday, Ethereum (ETH) fell roughly 15% alongside other major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), triggering $1.5 billion in liquidations — the largest single event in six months.
BIGGEST LIQUIDATION CASCADE EVER
OVER $1B IN LONGS WIPED OUT IN A SINGLE HOUR
THE REAL BLOODBATH 🩸 pic.twitter.com/3MPOw56O48
— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) September 22, 2025
The sudden drop forced many leveraged long positions to close and pushed ETH toward a key psychological floor around $4,000.
The price decline came even as institutional demand continued.
BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF registered roughly $512 million of inflows during the same sell-off, underscoring a divide between retail pressure and institutional accumulation.
Technical crosshairs: $4,000 is the line in the sand
Technically, the market looks fragile. ETH recently broke a symmetrical triangle, a move that gives a measured downside target near $3,560 if selling persists.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has flagged the $3,550–$3,750 area as a likely support zone, and he noted that the 20-week EMA sits close to $3,685.
I think that we’ll see some more chop occur on $ETH.
I don’t know whether we’ll dip as deep as $3,550-3,750, but I’m sure that we’ll start to see:
– 20-Week MA is getting closer. – Compression is building up –> Big move to occur at a later time.
It’s now down nearly 20% from… pic.twitter.com/MUvUEYY4Xv
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 23, 2025
Short-term resistance bands now cluster between about $4,220 and $4,360.
Below that, traders are watching $4,120, $4,050 and the critical $4,000 level.
A decisive break under those supports could accelerate the decline toward roughly $3,800.
Conversely, a clean bounce and a decisive close above the 50-day EMA near $4,250 would improve the odds of a sustained recovery.
A second technical pattern of concern is a descending triangle that formed after August’s peak near $4,956.
That structure keeps $4,070 as a make-or-break pivot.
If $4,070 holds, the path to a retest of $5,000 reopens; if it fails, downside to $3,800 becomes more likely.
Bull case: ETFs, M2 chart and five-figure targets
On the bullish side, a string of analysts and macro studies argue that today’s weakness could set the stage for aggressive gains.
Ted Pillows applied the Global M2 Money Supply chart to Ethereum and suggested a scenario that lands ETH between $18,000 and $20,000 by 2026.
Global M2 supply is now projecting $18,000-$20,000 ETH by cycle top.
Even if $ETH pulls half of that, it’ll trade above $10,000.
I’m still long-term bullish on Ethereum and think that a sweep of the $4,000 liquidity zone could happen before reversal. pic.twitter.com/w6ZZl0OuPI
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 21, 2025
Other market voices back more modest but still impressive rallies.
Daan de Rover and Fundstrat’s Mark Newton highlight a $5,500 target, with Newton adding that ETH is unlikely to drop much below $4,000.
Institutional commitments have reinforced that sentiment; combined flows from large managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity reached hundreds of millions, a dynamic many analysts say supports higher prices over time.
In addition, Crypto GEMs point to Wyckoff Accumulation scenarios and chart setups that could take ETH toward $7,000 if a spring and test sequence holds.
Michaël van de Poppe himself argues that compression is building and that dips around current levels represent attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term buyers.
What traders should watch
Key datapoints to monitor are liquidity below $4,000, ETF inflows, and whether the 50-day EMA around $4,250 is reclaimed.
Ethereum sits at a crossroads. The near term is binary: hold above $4,000 and bulls can chase higher targets; lose that floor and technical setups point to a deeper correction toward the mid-$3,000s.
Longer term, robust institutional flows, tokenisation trends, and macro easing provide clear bullish arguments — some analysts even see five-figure and double-digit-thousand outcomes on the horizon.
Traders and investors should watch liquidity, ETF flows, and moving-average confirmations to decide which path unfolds next.
