Last updated:
October 5, 2025
As mentioned in my Bitcoin price prediction, BTC’s recent rally has unfolded exactly as projected. The cryptocurrency broke above the $118,000 resistance, maintained bullish momentum within the Bearish Butterfly pattern, and touched $124,600 before entering a consolidation phase.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $123,108, up 0.69% in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $2.45 trillion and a daily trading volume exceeding $65 billion. This pause near $124K isn’t a sign of weakness.
Instead, it reflects natural market digestion before the next move toward the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ, which lies) between $128K and $130K, where the harmonic pattern is expected to complete.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to follow its rising channel structure, confirming a healthy series of higher highs and higher lows. The 50-SMA ($116,394) and 100-SMA ($114,948) both remain below price action, reinforcing bullish alignment. Momentum indicators echo the same narrative: the RSI has eased to 66, cooling from overbought conditions above 75, a typical mid-rally reset before continuation.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook – The Bearish Butterfly Reaches a Key Juncture
Bitcoin price prediction is bullish right now, even if, the medium term pattern suggest bearish bias soon. Bearish Butterfly harmonic pattern, first highlighted in my October 3 forecast, remains central to the current setup.
This structure indicates that while Bitcoin’s short-term momentum is strong, the risk of reversal will increase as the price approaches the upper PRZ.
Candlestick behavior reinforces this duality. Recent candles show smaller bodies with upper wicks, indicating short-term hesitation among buyers as they test resistance around $124,000.
Historically, such pauses often precede either a breakout continuation or a measured pullback toward local support — in this case, near $121,140 or $118,500.
Still, there are no signs of exhaustion yet. Volume trends and institutional inflows suggest continued accumulation, and funding rates remain balanced, signaling that the rally isn’t purely speculative. Should Bitcoin maintain its footing above $ 121,000, the next leg toward $ 128,000–$ 130,000 appears increasingly probable.
Pathway to $160K – The Bullish Continuation Scenario
If Bitcoin decisively breaks above $ 128,000, it could invalidate the short-term bearish implications of the harmonic pattern and pave the way for an extended rally toward $ 160,000. Such a breakout would represent not only technical strength but also psychological confirmation of renewed institutional appetite.
CME open interest and ETF inflows continue to reflect expanding participation from professional investors — a stark contrast to retail hesitation seen during prior cycles. With macro conditions easing and liquidity improving, the setup mirrors the early stages of Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull phase.
For traders, the key remains patience and structure. As long as BTC holds above $121,000, momentum remains on the side of buyers. A clean breakout above $124,600 could reignite bullish volume and push the market into the PRZ.
Beyond that, a confirmed close over $ 130,000 would open the door to exponential expansion — potentially propelling Bitcoin toward its next primary target at $160,000 in the months ahead.
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