Key takeaways:
Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson expects two to six months for recovery, though forecasts remain divided.
One model cites historical price action breakout phases from 2017, 2021, and 2024.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent correction has tempered bullish enthusiasm, with analysts now projecting a slower path toward new highs.
Since reaching an all-time high of $126,200 on Oct. 6, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped roughly 20%, currently hovering under the $100,000 mark. According to network economist Timothy Peterson, this pullback aligns with Bitcoin’s historical recovery patterns. Peterson explained,
“This is the third 20% drawdown from an all-time high since 2024. The average recovery to a new ATH from these levels is 2–6 months.”
The economist added that AI-created simulations suggest less than a 20% probability of Bitcoin hitting $140,000 by year-end, a 50% chance of finishing above $108,000, and a 30% chance of ending 2025 in the red.
Similarly, Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn has cut the firm’s year-end BTC target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing market maturation. Thorn noted that Bitcoin is entering a phase where institutional participation, passive inflows, and reduced volatility define price behavior.
Thorn added that maintaining the $100,000 support could keep the three-year bull trend structurally intact, but that “future gains may unfold at a slower, steadier pace as Bitcoin transitions into a maturity era.”
Meanwhile, crypto trader Titan of Crypto offered a more mixed outlook, forecasting a potential new all-time high near $130,000 by year-end, but warned that Bitcoin could plunge below $70,000 by Q1 2026, based on Wyckoff distribution analysis.
Related: Bitcoin crisscrosses $100K as BTC price ‘bottoming phase’ begins
Market reset for Bitcoin’s next phase remains active
Despite widespread caution, Bitcoin commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera presented a contrasting view, arguing that the recent correction may actually prime BTC for a parabolic phase.
Perera said 29.2% of Bitcoin’s supply is now underwater, a level historically preceding major rallies. Perera pointed out that similar metrics appeared before the 2017, 2021, and 2024 bull runs, each leading to 150% to 400% gain within six months.
According to Perera, leverage across derivatives markets has been flushed out, while long-term holders now control roughly 70% of supply. Institutional accumulation through ETFs and rising stablecoin reserves suggests “liquidity is recharging beneath the surface.”
The analyst concluded that, unless triggered by a major macro or geopolitical shock, Bitcoin’s current structure mirrors previous pre-breakout conditions, with the next 180 days potentially marking the start of another explosive cycle.
Related: Bitcoin at $100K is ‘speed bump’ to $56K, but data signals no signs of panic
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
